Swine Flu Update from the CDC

The Swine flu has been given so much attention as one of the those 'extra scary' contagious and infectious diseases that many Americans have an over stimulated, fearful perspective. When in truth the number of deaths are now so low that the reports are only highlighting pediatric death rates so as to make the total number seem unusually high. At the moment it is

Yes, a death is grave news, and yet is and always will be the end of 'life' as is most popularly defined.

Updates as best as we can find from the authorities that have triggered the pandemic alarm button for swine flu, aka H1N1 virus as of week 48 ending December 5, 2009.

From http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/:
All data are preliminary and may change as more reports are received.
Synopsis:

During week 48 (November 29-December 5, 2009), influenza activity continued to decrease in the U.S

478 (8.9%) specimens tested by U.S. World Health Organization (WHO) and National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) collaborating laboratories and reported to CDC/Influenza Division were positive for influenza.

Over 99% of all subtyped influenza A viruses being reported to CDC were 2009 influenza A (H1N1) viruses.

The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was above the epidemic threshold for the tenth consecutive week.

Sixteen influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported. Thirteen of these deaths were associated with 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus infection, two were associated with an influenza A virus for which the subtype was undetermined, and one was associated with an influenza B virus infection.

The proportion of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) was 2.7% which is above the national baseline of 2.3%. Six of the 10 regions reported ILI at or above region-specific baseline levels. Regions 3, 6, 8 and 10 reported ILI below their region specific baselines.

Fourteen states reported geographically widespread influenza activity, Puerto Rico and 25 states reported regional influenza activity, the District of Columbia and seven states reported local influenza activity, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam and four states reported sporadic influenza activity.

October 19 marked the calendar as the 43 week and the peak of all hospitalizations and all reported influenza deaths, including the swine flu. As of the 47 and 48th week, the death rate had dropped by 50%.

This new reporting system was implemented on August 30, 2009, and replaces the weekly report of laboratory confirmed 2009 H1N1-related hospitalizations and deaths that began in April 2009. Jurisdictions can now report to CDC counts of hospitalizations and deaths resulting from all types or subtypes of influenza, not just those from 2009 H1N1 influenza virus. To allow jurisdictions to implement the new case definition, counts were reset to zero on August 30, 2009.

From August 30 – December 5, 2009, 33,490 laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations and 1,445 laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated deaths were reported to CDC.

Of all the specimens they are categorizing from these report totals, they say that 98.5% are Influenza A of which 73% is H1N1 (swine flu).

If you read over their report carefully, you see that at first the CDC is reporting the overview numbers and statistics for all pneumonia and influenza activity. However, when they chart out the hospitalization and death rates to validate alarming increases from the last several years, they are only reporting on pediatric results. By the time they are charting the last few weeks of Nov-Dec 2009, there is no mention of deaths associated to swine flu in any other demographic range. Does this mean that at this point only children are the group susceptible? It is hard to say.

One more thing stands out. One of the charts has a read line indicating the P and I mortality for 122 cities over the last several years. There are two lines to indicate a seasonal baseline and an epidemic threshold value. The chart is introduced with this statement:
During week 48, 7.8% of all deaths reported through the 122-Cities Mortality Reporting System were due to P&I. This percentage was above the epidemic threshold of 7.1% for week 48. Including week 48, P&I mortality has been above threshold for 10 consecutive weeks.

When compared to an early chart that states that it is reporting the national summary for all deaths associated with P and I, this first chart shows a dramatic decrease for this time line, more than a 50% decline. And yet the red spark line documenting the incidence above the threshold value ends with a upward swing during this same time line.

Finally, this chart outlining the mortality trends over the years, has a MUCH larger spike of mortality occurrence for the year 2008. According to the values assigned, the early part of 2008 had a spike in mortality rates of over 9% as compared to the this latest 'pandemic' of 7.8%. And the 2008 flu season also stayed above the threshold range for more than 10 weeks. Did we panic then? I can't help but wonder if we are being trained like Pavlov's famous dog experiment where he tracked and determined the nature of conditioned reflexes/reactions. hmmmmm.